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Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Indy Eleven 2024 Season Recap & 2025 Off-Season Outlook

I started the recap of the 2023 season asking the question about whether simply making the playoffs was enough to consider a season successful. Last year, that answer was mostly "maybe." Indy hadn't been to the playoffs since 2019, so getting to the playoffs was a positive step. Getting bludgeoned 5-1 by Charleston in the opening round of the playoffs was clearly not a positive finish to the season, but the playoff appearance was an important step. 

As Coach McAuley stated after Sunday's defeat to Rhode Island, "In football, if you stay the same, you're probably getting worse. So we need to improve next year and improve again and just keep improving." When thinking about this season as compared to last season, it's easier to consider the 2024 season a successful one, despite finishing the season at the exact same stage as last year. Indy had an U.S. Open Cup run to the tournament's semifinal game. Indy finished top four in the Eastern Conference to be able to host the opening round game of the playoffs. Indy improved.

Yet, those same lingering frustrations remain that fans felt last season when the season was over. Indy finished the season feeling like they should have done better in their final game. Which, I think, is a fair complaint. It's easy to continually see the success across the Ohio River and want there to be more success on this side of the river. It takes a winning culture, and a lot more consistency than what Indy has ever had in its history. I'm going to discuss a lot of this later, but if you base the success of a season based only on the result of the team's last game, only one team would ever be able to say that they had a successful season. 

So much has happened this season that it's difficult to narrow down which part was the most impactful. In some ways, it felt like the transition between the 2017 and 2018 seasons when the team switched coaches, leagues, and playing venues. A lot happened this year.

  • In November of 2023, it looked like we were headed toward a third season with Mark Lowry, who had successfully returned the team to the playoffs with a core group of players who seemed to be returning for 2024 to continue to improve upon that step. By the end of the month, Lowry and the club decided to part ways

  • A couple of months later, the team hired Coach McAuley who came to Indy with limited first-team level coaching experience but who, like his predecessors, was confident that he could bring success to the club. I wondered before the announcement if it really even mattered who would be selected as the coach. Indy's periodic, but regular replacement of coaches has made my pessimism strong. More on Coach McAuley later. 

  • A few months after that, the Mayor of Indianapolis dropped a bombshell on the club and its supporters with a press conference where he announced that he had taken a trip to NYC to see Don Garber to discuss the possibility of bringing MLS to Indianapolis, while also announcing a new Professional Sports Development Area different from the Eleven Park site. Over the next couple of months, I had some thoughts on the entire debacle. More on the stadium later.

  • Starting in the last game of April all the way until mid-June, Indy did not lose a game. In a 9-game undefeated streak that started with a draw against Colorado, the team then proceeded to go on an 8-game league win streak with wins against North Carolina, Monterey Bay, Miami, Hartford, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, Birmingham, and San Antonio before losing at home to Orange County. Built around and within that undefeated league streak was also a historic run in the U.S. Open Cup, which put Indy on a 12-game undefeated streak, with 11 wins and USOC wins against Chicago Fire II, Detroit, and San Antonio. Even after Indy's league loss, the team beat Atlanta United in the USOC to get to one of the tournament's semifinal games against Sporting Kansas City.

  • Indy clinched a playoff spot in back-to-back years for the first time since the 2018-2019 seasons, which are the only two times that the team has been in the playoffs in consecutive seasons. Indy then clinched a home playoff game for the first time since 2019.
Everybody would have liked to see Indy progress further in the playoffs, particularly with the first game being hosted at Carroll Stadium, but it would be disingenuous to say that the season wasn't successful. Removing the loss in the playoff game and the stadium debacle, Indy took steps forward. Whether they can take more steps forward in 2025 will be seen.

To that end, here are my thoughts when looking towards next season.

Looking to 2025

Stadium

The stadium is in an absolute state of limbo, at least as far as the fans are concerned. I plan to have a dedicated article to the stadium in the coming days/weeks so I won't get into it much here. However, what we, as fans, know is very little. The Eleven Park site that included a groundbreaking in 2023 with the Mayor and Governor in attendance, and had the Diamond Chain buildings demolished from its site, appears to be frozen in time from where it was when Mayor Hogsett made his announcements about MLS and the process of converting the Eleven Park PSDA to a new location began. Whether that is a temporary stoppage or a permanent stoppage is dependent on how Mr. Ozdemir (and the rest of the ownership group?), Keystone, and Indy Eleven address the potential thousands of human remains that may be present in the burial ground that was Greenlawn Cemetery where Eleven Park was going to be constructed. Again, I plan to discuss more soon, with a much more detailed article, but the stadium design has been put on hold, construction has ceased, and the team would offer no real comment to me other than to say that, "Once we have a further update on the new stadium and Eleven Park, we will share accordingly." That could be this week, next week, next month, or 6-months from now. Only they know. What fans know is that Rhode Island, who entered the Championship this year, will begin playing in their new soccer-specific stadium next season, while Indy, in their 12th season, will continue to play at "American Soccer's Greatest Dive Bar." To add salt to the stadium wound, Fort Wayne FC announced this week that they will be building a new stadium and will begin playing there in the 2026 season. 

Coach
Coach McAuley was announced in early January and was quick to endear himself to the fans who were able to meet him at his first appearance with the fans in late January. My impression was that he was a nice person, with a desire to play a different style of soccer than his predecessors, and seemingly with the support of the players who had been announced by then. Coach McAuley continued to impress me throughout the season with his desire to do right by the fans. He even reached out to me personally when a mix-up in schedules meant that I was not afforded an interview that I was told could happen. I appreciate that personal touch.

I think he wants to be here. I think he wants to build something in Indy. I think he might be able to get it done. 

I thought all of those things about Mark Lowry who wanted to be here until he didn't. It took until after the second season for Lowry to realize that he didn't want to be here any longer. How long it takes for McAuley is unknown to me, but history of this team has proven that it might not be very long. Maybe McAuley will prove me wrong.

However, in comparison to other first year results of the Indy Eleven coaches, McAuley ranks second in percentage of points won across all competitions. Coach Hankinson's team in 2016 won or drew 81.1% of the time, while Coach McAuley's team this year won or drew 67.50% of the time. Coach Hankinson's value is inflated slightly because that counts the "friendly" win against Pachuca, but even without that value, he's still ahead. Only Martin Rennie's second season with the team in 2019 (72.50%) was more successful than McAuley's debut season. Those rankings remain the same if you look at the successes on a Points/Game basis. Given that the 2016 and the 2019 teams are the only times that Indy has ever had a significant positive goal differential, and this year's team was the only one of the Eastern Conference playoff teams with a negative league goal differential (the USOC run likely helped bring Indy's overall goal differential into a positive value thanks to three shutouts in the run), it's clear that McAuley's team this year were in a bunch of close results. McAuley came into the season stating that he wanted the team to score a lot of goals and would have the team play in a way to try and do that (pressing high in the opponent's half, getting the ball into the attacking third as quickly as possible, etc.). The 59 goals that the team scored this year were a club record setting total, but unfortunately, they conceded 56 goals. That's something that McAuley will want to get remedied next season.

I stated last year that Lowry getting the team back to the playoffs was enough for him to continue on in Indy unless a different team came calling offering a better opportunity or money. I think the same applies this year for McAuley. It would be difficult for Ozdemir and Stremlaw to fire a coach that lead his team to a Top 4 finish in the conference. Given McAuley's relatively thin first-team resume, I would be surprised if a lot of clubs are seeking him out right now. Another year of similar, or better, success and it might be a different conversation. So unless McAuley wants to leave (and my hunch at this point is that he wants to stay) or he gets a better offer, McAuley will be back next year to try and improve upon his inaugural season with the club.

Players

After the Rhode Island game, Coach indicated, "We gotta make decisions about players. I've already got a picture in my mind what it looks like so that's going to be easy for me to make them decisions."

Repeating myself from last year, "As I've discussed over the years in these season end reviews, it seems like the majority of the player contracts for Indy Eleven have the appearance of 2 year contracts or 1 year contracts with a 2nd year option. The existing contracts, loans, and trades that happened this year make it another year where it could be difficult to accurately determine who will be returning next year. However, all the roster movement also meant that Lowry McAuley brought in or released the players that he thought would make the team better. Moving forward will likely be this core, while also bringing in depth at all positions," which McAuley also said in his remarks after the Rhode Island game would be likely.

Based on my own opinions, here are what players from this year's roster that I can envision being somewhere else and who might be returning (I'm including all players that were on the roster, even the ones that were transferred away, for completeness, but am not including the Academy players as they seem to fall under an even larger variable than the 1st team players):


Gone:

  1. Barbir - He was signed when Lowry was the coach and last just three games before being transferred to Miami. 
  2. Boudadi - The frequently injured player was transferred to Hartford in June. He liked being in Hartford, and felt aggrieved by his release from Indy based on his X post at that time. 
  3. Henderlong - Played just 119 minutes on the season. Even when you're looking for depth, those players rarely return the following season.
  4. Ikoba - He was on a loan from Portland and they recalled him back in June where he dropped back down to their MLS NEXT Pro team for the remainder of the season. Maybe they try to loan him to Indy again, but I doubt it.
  5. Klein - Indy's first "Undrafted" signing. He was on the roster for less than a month. 
  6. Molina - He was a carryover from the 2023 season and played just 4 minutes this season before being part of the transfer deal to Miami.
  7. O'Brien, Ethan - Just 36 minutes all season, the bulk of which came in a 27-minute stretch against Las Vegas in the game before the USOC semifinal where McAuley was rotating players. Those players rarely return. However, my impression is that Ethan's contract was not substantial. So maybe he becomes one of the outliers to return despite his minimal minutes, but I doubt it.
  8. Sanchez - A single minute of action and was on the injured list for a lot of the season. Feels like the kind of player that doesn't get his contract renewed when the team is looking to build additional depth on the roster. Though he's also a young kid who was recently on an Academy contract so he could slide back into the roster and it wouldn't surprise me.
  9. Schneider - Minimal minutes and nothing since the middle of the season.

Possibly Gone:

  1. Gibson - It pains me to say it, but I think Gibson won't be returning next year. Top 10 in club history in Minutes Played, Games Played, and Games Started, but he was non-existent on the game day rosters at the end of the year. If he wants to stick around for depth, maybe he's here. At his age, I can see that happening, but I could also see him hanging up the boots if he's not interested in uprooting his family again.
  2. Guenzatti - Repeat everything I just said about Gibson except change it to Games Started, Goal Scorers, and Total Points. In a playoff game where Indy needed a goal, McAuley brought on Diz Pe while Guenzatti watched helplessly from the endline. I don't know if that says everything, but it might mean that Guenzatti has played his last game for Indy. I hope not, but I think the possibility exists.  
  3. King - Hampered by injuries all season, Macca played just 63 minutes this season. A carryover from last season, if he was on a 2-year deal, I don't know that he gets an extension. Will likely depend on whether McAuley saw enough from him in training for the team to offer a 1-year extension.
  4. Mines - Mines was a quick starter for McAuley when he arrived in Indy from Miami, but has dropped off substantially in recent weeks (though still getting playing time just not as frequent), particularly after the late-season additions. McAuley saw enough in Mines to bring him here, but it might be a single season here.
  5. Musa - Has provided depth at the back, and began to find a starter role in the tail end of the season. Musa’s return next year may be dependent on the contract amount. His mid-season arrival could have meant a short-term contract that would need to be renegotiated this off-season. That negotiation could bring him back or send him on the road.
  6. O'Brien, Josh - Was a good defender to have for depth. Like his brother, my impression is that his contract wasn't substantial. I'll put this comment here, but it could apply to most/all of the defenders on the roster. The team conceded 56 goals. If McAuley is looking to fix that problem, a few of the defenders that I list in Possible Gone or Probably Returning could easily switch to Gone.
  7. Oettl - Until his injury, Yannik was the clear #1 for Lowry last year. He started this year in that same #1 position, but Sulte relatively quickly edged him out. What happens with Oettl could depend on what happens with Sulte (see below). He was also probably on a 2-year deal, so he might be looking for another team where he can get starter minutes. Again, subject to what goes on with Sulte...
  8. Sulte - This will depend highly on what Portland does with their goalkeeper situation. If they keep all the other guys, they might loan Sulte back to Indy again. If they saw enough out of him during his stint here, he might supplant one of the current guys, in which he won't be back in Indy next year. 
  9. Wootton - Same thing as Sulte, but make it Chicago instead of Portland. They may renew the loan or he may be gone. Difficult to say.

Probably Returning:

  1. Blake - Unless other teams come calling with more more, which could be possible, an 8-time Team of the Week player doesn't get left off the roster then next season. 
  2. Chapman-Page - Callum was on a loan deal in 2023. I think McAuley liked his physicality this year, though his injury stints might give the team pause. I think he returns though.
  3. Collier - Collier was Top 5 in the league in goals per minutes played, and played in 35 of the team's 40 games, but only getting 4 starts. His unpredictability makes him an interesting and dangerous weapon off the bench late in games. McAuley keeps him around.
  4. Diz Pe - Diz did a better job this season of controlling his emotions, with the exception of the two-game stretch late in the season where he was shown red cards. Other than that blip, Diz was a mainstay on the game day lineup.  
  5. Foster - Pacey goal scorer who willingly attacks opposition defenders one-on-one; maybe to a fault at times. Will get another year to try and score more than the 1 goal he scored for Indy this year.
  6. Lindley - All of what I said last year applies: "A local guy who was a cornerstone of the roster this year. Cam wants to be in Indy closer to family and Lowry wants him in the Indy midfield. There aren't guarantees in the business of soccer, but Lindley returning next season might be close." The one caveat that makes me wonder is how much Cam dropped off the lineup at the end of the season. He has to be a great person to have for depth and he wants to be in Indy. That is likely enough for me to believe that McAuley wants to have a player who has in recent years received league first-team recognition.
  7. Martinez – He’s likely at the end of a 2-year contract, but showed an ability to score, while also being third on the team in assists behind Stanley and Blake, respectively. We’ve seen his ability to play at different positions, which is always valuable to a coach when it comes time for game day lineup selection and flexibility on who gets used for each game. It might be a one-year contract with an option for more, but Martinez found himself on the field a lot, which to me means that McAuley has faith in him. 
  8. Neidlinger - It didn’t benefit the team (or club) in many ways to sign the recent Academy player to a pro contract so late in the year, but the team felt it was important to reward him for his effort and progress. On the Academy contract, he could have still competed with the U20s in the upcoming Academy League Cup, plus they could have continued to have an additional substitute sitting on the bench thanks to the new rule this year to promote giving Academy players game experience. Signing in early October, I seriously doubt that they signed him to a 1- or 2-month contract, so I fully expect the local kid to be wearing the Indy Eleven crest next year.
  9. Ofeimu - Upon arriving from Miami, Ofeimu was a staple in the back line and showed that he could play different spots within that line. Ofeimu played in every game except the season finale. While I know McAuley has some questions about how to solidify the defense, I think it’s going to at least partially revolve around getting the appropriate players to play with Ofeimu.
  10. Quinn - The other player in USL Championship history to have at least 50 goals and 50 assists besides Asante, and Indy's second leading scorer this year behind Guenzatti, Aodhan was a key component of the Indy midfield. He has also started setting roots here with a young family and that will make him want to stick around. McAuley would be crazy to not keep him.
  11. Soumaoro - The arrival of Soumaoro nearly coincided with the absence of Lindley from the starting lineup. While I think Lindley still has a place on this team, the fact that Soumaoro started taking many of Lindley’s minutes indicates to me that Soumaoro was able to do things that McAuley wanted. His persistence in the starting lineup at the end of the season when other options remained available for selection gives me confidence that he’ll be returning next season.
  12. Stanley - Stanley quickly moved up the team’s all-time assist leaderboard, finishing the season with 9 across all competitions (7 league, 2 USOC) to put him tied with Zayed and Lindley. He had been on pace to threaten the top 2 spot held by Dylan Mares, but didn’t have an assist in the final 21 league games. What he did do, though, was play every minute of every game he was in except for the final 27 minutes of the playoff game, the final 15 minutes of the USOC game, and two full games in league action when being rested for squad rotation, or 94% of the minutes available for him to play. Players with those kinds of minutes almost always return the next season.
  13. White - Much like Soumaoro, when he arrived in town, he immediately began finding himself in the starting lineup. He brings a different skill level that McAuley appreciates. Would suspect that the contract was for the end of the year, with an option for next year, which I think will be taken.
  14. Williams, Augi - Leading goal scorer for the team in league play. Leading goal scorer for the team in USOC play. He’ll be back.
  15. Williams, Romario - Didn’t score many goals, but he has good hold-up play and was starting to really figure out the partnership with Augi and was getting better with Foster. He returns as well to continue those partnerships.

Final Thoughts

With so much happening this year for the men’s team, it will be difficult to match for next year. USOC runs for teams at the USL Championship level are historic and rare, so it’s difficult to think that Indy could repeat that feat, but McAuley has already expressed a desire to do “at least 1 better” next year. Watching the team seemingly struggle in league play as they progressed further into the USOC, being able to manage players differently might be something that will be on the coaching staff’s mind next year if a USOC run does begin to materialize.

I’m sure there will be some news about the stadium. What and when and by whom is an absolute mystery to everyone not named Ersal Ozdemir or Mayor Hogsett. See my article, likely next week, for more of my thoughts on the stadium.

With a year under his belt, and a Top 4 finish in the conference, McAuley’s expectations for next season are going to go up. If other fans are like me, you would like to match those expectations, but history of the club has made that a difficult proposition. We have grown to accept that the setbacks happen just as frequently as the breakthroughs. However, the team improved from year 1 to year 2 under Rennie, and then did the same thing under Lowry (after the requisite setbacks in year 3 and 4 under Rennie…).  So a more successful second season under McAuley isn’t out of the question. With the core 15 players that I have listed as Probably Returning, that's a good start.

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